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Dr. Allen Frances: February 2012 Archives

February 2012 Archives

Can the Press Save DSM 5 from Itself?

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DSM 5 has suddenly become a star press attraction. In just the last three weeks, more than 100 news stories featuring DSM 5 appeared in major media outlets located in more than a dozen countries. (For a representative sample see Suzy Chapman's post on Dx Revision Watch.) The explosion of interest started with a flurry when The New York Times published two long DSM 5 articles and three DSM-5-related op-ed pieces, all within a few days. An unrelated press conference in London then generated a widely distributed Reuters story and also many independent pieces. Several other reporters had also been working on their own DSM 5 stories that just happened to arrive at the same time.

The intense press scrutiny of DSM 5 is really just beginning. I know of at least ten additional reporters who are preparing their work now for publication in the near future. And many of the journalists whose articles appeared during these last few weeks intend to stay on this story for the duration -- at least until DSM 5 is published, and probably beyond. They understand that DSM 5 is a document of great individual and societal consequence -- and that its impact and risks need a thorough public airing.

The press coverage has been almost uniformly and devastatingly negative. The two most common themes are 1) DSM 5 will radically expand the boundaries of psychiatry, medicalizing normality and leading to unneeded and harmful treatment; and 2) DSM 5 decisions are being made arbitrarily, based on narrow input and lacking sufficient scientific support. The DSM 5 proposals that have elicited the most concern are changes in the definition of autism and the expansion of major depressive disorder to capture much of normal grief.

The articles sometimes contain small inaccuracies and sometimes emphasize peripheral issues. And the most dangerous DSM 5 proposals get far too little mention. I will discuss in later blogs how DSM 5 will worsen the over-diagnosis of attention-deficit disorder and the over-prescription of antipsychotic mediation. But the press has gotten the main points just right and somehow manages to see the risks of DSM 5 much more clearly than do the people working on it.

Will the American Psychiatric Association finally listen to this concentrated chorus of criticism? At a critical 11th hour, when all else has failed, will the world's reporters save DSM 5 from itself? Is the power of the pen mightier than the thick walls that have so far protected DSM 5 from self-correction? Can the irresistible force of the press move the previously immovable DSM 5 object?

The initial DSM 5 responses are not encouraging -- the usual brew of inaccurate, misleading, and unconvincing statements that never tackle any of the issues in a substantial way. And APA has previously proven itself to be remarkably oblivious, dogged, and stubborn. During these past two years, DSM 5 has made almost no changes in its proposals -- despite their having received widespread criticisms. APA has also casually shrugged off a petition opposing many DSM 5 proposals and requesting that they be subjected to an independent scientific review. The fact that the petition is endorsed by no fewer than 47 different and substantial mental health organizations seems to have carried no weight whatsoever. And APA dismisses the plan of many previous users to boycott DSM 5 by substituting the alternative coding system of ICD-10-CM (which will be freely available on the Internet).

Will the unfavorable press result in a more favorable DSM 5 outcome? Surely we must hope so -- because so few other corrective options are available. DSM 5 remains steadfast and rigid in its support of really bad proposals with extremely dangerous unintended public health consequences. A very small group of out-of-touch DSM 5 experts is now extremely close to achieving what amounts to a radical coup -- redefining a greatly expanded psychiatry at the expense of a quickly shrinking normality. The many expressions of professional and public opposition from outside this hermetically sealed inner circle have been ignored almost completely.

But I have some hope that this concentrated press barrage may succeed where previous efforts have failed. It is fair to say that DSM 5 has become an object of general public and professional scorn. Perhaps now at last, prodded by the world press, DSM 5 will have to heed the unanimous cautionary warnings. Let's hope it will finally come to its senses and cut its losses by rejecting the worst proposals. This will be a service to psychiatry and, most important, to our current and future patients. Paradoxically, the terribly embarrassing press it is receiving now may save DSM 5 and APA much greater embarrassment in the future and, more importantly, prevent the mislabeling as mentally ill of literally millions of people, and their potential exposure to unnecessary and risky medications.


Originally Published by Huffington Post on February 15, 2012.
Until yesterday, there were only two reasons to stick with the projected date of DSM 5 publication (May 2013): 1) the need to coordinate DSM 5 with ICD-10-CM coding, which was scheduled to start Oct 2013; and, 2) the need to protect APA publishing profits in order to meet budget projections.

The first reason just dropped out.  Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Kathleen G. Sebelius has announced that the start date for ICD-10-CM has been postponed. It is not yet clear for how long, but most likely a year.

This latest delay in implementing ICD-10-CM is the government's response to pressure by medical providers worried about the cost of changing systems. ICD 10 was available 20 years ago and has been official around the world for some time. The long US lag has been a cost saving measure - it will take billions of dollars to get all health system computers to switch coding systems. Indeed, there are many who would like to take this delay one giant step further by canceling  ICD-10-CM altogether and leap frogging to ICD 11 (which will be ready around 2015 or 2016).

Consequently, there is only one reason left to rush DSM 5 to print- the prospect of publishing profits. This would be a shame because DSM 5 is nowhere near ready to be born. Why do I say this and what needs to be done before it can responsibly turned loose on the field?

1) During the past month, there have been well over 100 highly critical news articles in major media outlets all around the world decrying the the many risks of DSM 5 proposals. APA's internal scientific review of these DSM 5 proposals is being conducted in secret and has absolutely no credibility to the outside world. DSM 5 will continue to be ridiculed and ultimately will be rejected unless its extremely controversial proposals are dropped or are subjected to independent scientific review- and such outside review will take time.

2) DSM 5 made a great mistake when it cancelled the crucially important second stage of its field trials. This was made necessary because constant delays in completing its first stage left no remaining time for its second—that is assuming that the May 2013 publication date had to be met at all costs. DSM 5 also warned us that its imprecisely written criteria sets performed so poorly in the first stage of the field trials that historically unacceptable reliabilities (barely better than chance) will now be accepted for DSM 5. This is simply unacceptable. DSM 5 should complete both stages of its field trials as originally scheduled. This means rewriting and retesting the poorly performing diagnoses. And this will take time.

3) The planned DSM 5 clinician's field trial appears to be almost completely dead in the water- plagued by disorganization, constant delays, and a ridiculously high attrition rate. If this is to be done properly, it too will take time to complete.

The original publication date of DSM 5 was 2011. This had to be delayed for a year and then again for another year because of poor planning and disorganized implementation. Continued unexplained delays again have DSM 5 so far behind its own schedule that May 2013 can now be met only with a third rate product that cannot possibly gain the wide acceptance enjoyed by previous DSM 's. The only responsible APA action is to delay DSM 5 publication yet again until it has successfully accomplished all the steps planned in its own original timetable.

 The only reason for APA to prematurely rush out a poor DSM 5 product is profit- and given its importance this is simply no excuse at all.

APA Should Delay Publication Of DSM-5

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My three criticisms of DSM-5 have been: 1) risky suggestions; 2) bad writing; and 3) poor planning and disorganization. I have pretty much failed to have any real impact on DSM-5; other than perhaps successfully pressuring APA to delay its publication once before, moving it from May 2012 to May 2013. The one-year extension has been largely wasted, the risky suggestions and bad writing remain, and constant warnings that missed deadlines would lead to a mad and careless race at the end were ignored.

With less than a year remaining before DSM-5 is scheduled to go to print, the signs are clear that it cannot possibly be completed on time unless we are willing to settle for a third rate product. The unmistakable red flag is the recent embarrassing admission that DSM-5 will accept diagnoses that achieve reliabilities as unbelievably low as 0.2-0.4 (barely beating the level of chance agreement two monkeys could achieve throwing darts at a diagnostic board). This dramatic departure from the much higher standards of previous DSM's is a sure tip-off that many DSM-5 proposals must be failing to achieve adequate diagnostic agreement in the repeatedly delayed and yet to be reported field trials. Unable to meet expected standards, the DSM-5 Task Force is drastically and desperately trying to lower our expectations.

After reading the first drafts posted in early February 2010, I warned that DSM-5 was in for severe reliability problems. The criteria sets were in remarkably raw form; clearly, they were no more than the draft product of the work groups deprived of the extensive editing needed to turn vague diagnostic concepts into precise, unambiguous, and consistent diagnostic criteria. It was apparent that reasonable diagnostic agreement would be impossible to achieve with criteria so poorly and confusingly written.

The writing of criteria sets is a highly specialized skill that requires a clinician's experience, a computer scientist's command of algorithmic logic, and a lawyer's vigilance. I have known only a handful of people who have mastered this exotic craft and must admit that I cannot myself write decent criteria, despite years of trying to learn. If anyone working on DSM-5 had this necessary skill, the initial drafts would not have been made public in such a ragged and amateur state and the writing has not improved appreciably since. All of the DSM IV options entered field-testing in final draft form - every word had already been subjected to many iterations and countless reviews. In contrast, DSM-5 went into field-testing with primitive drafts that were painful to read.

The original plan for DSM-5 did have a necessary fail-safe; its field-testing was meant to be conducted in two stages. Those criteria sets that performed poorly in the first phase could then be rewritten by the work groups and retested to prove their mettle in the second stage. But disorganization kept delaying the start and plagued the execution of the field trials and deadlines were consistently missed, so that the reporting of results fell at least eighteen months behind the original schedule. For want of time, the absolutely necessary second phase was cancelled, thus circumventing the rewriting and the retesting needed to improve the poorly written criteria. The decision to take this unfortunate shortcut was done secretively, without any announcement or any discussion of its detrimental impact. So, it now appears that APA plans to publish poorly worded criteria sets as the official DSM-5, despite the fact that they have performed poorly in field-testing. The product will be a confusing DSM-5 that fails to provide the diagnostic agreement that is vital for clinical communication, research, and forensics.

The wise, safe, and responsible thing for APA to do now is to delay publication of DSM-5 until the missing second stage of rewriting and retesting can be completed. The wordings that have done poorly in the first stage of field-testing should be rewritten to finally attain the clarity and consistency necessary in an official manual of psychiatric diagnosis. The newly revised (and hopefully final) versions should then undergo the second stage of field-testing as originally envisaged to ensure that they now work. The extra time will also allow for the independent scientific reviews of controversial DSM-5 proposals called for in a petition that has already been signed by more than 11,000 mental health professionals and is endorsed by 40 professional organizations (including many divisions of the American Psychological Association, the American Counseling Association, and the British Psychological Society).

Will APA do what is needed to protect us from a poor quality DSM-5 and instead guarantee one that is safe and scientifically sound?  It seems unlikely. The DSM-5 publishing profits that are essential to APA budget projections require there be a May 2013 debut of the manual in bookstores, come hell or high water. So instead of getting DSM-5 up to minimal standards of quality, DSM-5 is trying to drop the standards to minimal - 0.2-0.4 will have to do.

What about the DSM-5 claim that its field trials are so rigorous that we should entertain only the lowest possible expectations of them? This is nonsense. The DSM-5 field trials were in fact conducted under very privileged circumstances that would guarantee much higher levels of reliability than could ever be achieved in everyday clinical practice: 1) Testing was performed in academic centers with a homogeneous corps of well trained raters interested in psychiatric diagnosis and trying their best because judgments were being observed; 2) Raters had access to the results of a computerized self report instrument, thus reducing information variance; 3) Each site specialized in a limited number of target diagnoses that were known to the raters who would therefore be on the watch for them; 4) The unrealistically high prevalence of target disorders in the sites made agreement much easier than the more needle-in-haystack situation of routine practice; 5) Academic settings attract a selected group of the more severely ill patients who are easier to diagnose reliably; and 6) The time allotted for diagnostic interviews exceeded what is typical in clinical practice.

Despite all these advantages, the DSM-5 Task Force is inviting us to settle for levels of agreement just above chance. If DSM-5 performs so poorly when the deck is heavily stacked in its favor, how will it perform in the rough and tumble of the real world?

Which leads to the question: what can be done now to rescue a failing DSM-5? The APA Trustees are face to face with a chilling but unavoidable moment of truth.  The press, the Internet, even the TV is filled with prominent stories highly critical of DSM-5. There is simply no way to hide its recklessness and low quality standards. A May 2013 publication date appears to be completely unrealistic unless we are to settle for a DSM-5 so poorly done that its reliabilities will return us to the dark ages of DSM II. DSM-5 is in a very deep hole with very few remaining options.

My recommendations: 1) Make the publication date flexible and contingent on delivery of a quality product that the field can trust; 2) Subject the current drafts and texts to extensive editing for clarity and consistency; 3) Drop the controversial suggestions that risk harmful unintended consequences or at least subject them to external scientific review; 4) Have the rewritten drafts reviewed word for word by many experts in the clinical, research, and forensic uses of DSM-5; and 5) Field test again to make sure the new versions work adequately.

 It will be argued back that my suggestions will take time and cost money. But APA has spent a reported $25 million on preparing DSM-5- much of it clearly wasted in missteps. A little more time and a little more money will be very well spent, if this is the only way to salvage a DSM-5 that can be trusted.

The last point is many critics use the specific failures of DSM-5 as justification to attack the entire enterprise of psychiatry. I strongly disagree. DSM-5 is no more than an unfortunate aberration reflecting the temporary state of weak and misguided APA leadership. The work on DSM-5 went off track because of unrealizable ambitions; a closed and secretive process; and insufficient attention to the day-to-day details of prudent planning, management, and careful writing.  Because of its poor performance on DSM-5, APA has probably forfeited its right to sole control of future revisions. But all this represents only the specific failure of DSM-5, not a general reflection on what psychiatry is and what it can accomplish. Done well and within its reasonable limits, psychiatry is an extremely helpful and essential profession. It would be a shame to throw the valuable baby out with the bath water or discourage patients from getting the psychiatric help they need and can benefit from. Admittedly, DSM-5 is an embarrassment and a serious hit to our credibility, but we will recover and our patients should not lose faith.

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